D. Contreras, J. P. Zibin, D. Scott, A. J. Banday, K. M. Górski

The cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies exhibit a large-scale dipolar power asymmetry. To determine whether this is due to a real, physical modulation or is simply a large statistical fluctuation requires the measurement of new modes. Here we forecast how well CMB polarization data from Planck and future experiments will be able to confirm or constrain physical models for modulation. Fitting several such models to the Planck temperature data allows us to provide predictions for polarization asymmetry. While for some models and parameters Planck polarization will decrease error bars on the modulation amplitude by only a small percentage, we show, importantly, that cosmic-variance-limited (and in some cases even Planck) polarization data can decrease the errors by considerably better than the expectation of $\sqrt 2$ based on simple $\ell$-space arguments. We project that if the primordial fluctuations are truly modulated (with parameters as indicated by Planck temperature data) then Planck will be able to make a 2$\sigma$ detection of the modulation model with 20-75% probability, increasing to 45-99% when cosmic-variance-limited polarization is considered. We stress that these results are quite model dependent. Cosmic variance in temperature is important: combining statistically isotropic polarization with temperature data will spuriously increase the significance of the temperature signal with 30% probability for Planck.

S. Jay Olson

High-energy astrophysical events that cause galaxy-scale extinctions have been proposed as a way to explain or mollify the Fermi Paradox, by making the universe at earlier times more dangerous for evolving life, and reducing its present-day prevalence. Here, we present an anthropic argument that a more dangerous early universe can have the opposite effect, actually increasing estimates for the amount of visible extragalactic life at the present cosmic time. This occurs when civilizations are assumed to expand and displace possible origination sites for the evolution of life, and estimates are made by assuming that humanity has appeared at a typical time. The effect is not seen if advanced life is assumed to always remain stationary, with no displacement of habitable worlds.

Valerie Domcke, Francesco Muia, Mauro Pieroni, Lukas T. Witkowski

Protected by an approximate shift symmetry, axions are well motivated candidates for driving cosmic inflation. Their generic coupling to the Chern-Simons term of any gauge theory gives rise to a wide range of potentially observable signatures, including equilateral non-Gaussianites in the CMB, chiral gravitational waves in the range of direct gravitational wave detectors and primordial black holes (PBHs). In this paper we revisit these predictions for axion inflation models non-minimally coupled to gravity. Contrary to the case of minimally coupled models which typically predict scale-invariant mass distributions for the generated PBHs at small scales, we demonstrate how broadly peaked PBH spectra naturally arises in this setup. For specific parameter values, all of dark matter can be accounted for by PBHs.

Alan Heavens, Yabebal Fantaye, Elena Sellentin, Hans Eggers, Zafiirah Hosenie, Steve Kroon, Arrykrishna Mootoovaloo

We compute the Bayesian Evidence for the theoretical models considered in the main analysis of Planck cosmic microwave background data. By utilising carefully-defined nearest-neighbour distances in parameter space, we reuse the Monte Carlo Markov Chains already produced for parameter inference to compute Bayes factors $B$ for many different models and with many different datasets from Planck with and without ancillary data. When CMB lensing is included, we find that the standard 6-parameter flat $\Lambda$CDM model is favoured over all other models considered, with curvature being mildly favoured when CMB lensing is not included. We also conclude that many alternative models are strongly disfavoured by the data. These include strong evidence against primordial correlated isocurvature models ($\ln B=-8.0$), non-zero scalar-to-tensor ratio ($\ln B=-4.3$), running of the spectral index ($\ln B = -4.7$), curvature ($\ln B=-3.6$), non-standard numbers of neutrinos ($\ln B=-3.1$), non-standard neutrino masses ($\ln B=-3.2$), non-standard lensing potential ($\ln B=-3.9$), evolving dark energy ($\ln B=-3.2$), sterile neutrinos ($\ln B=-7.0$), and extra sterile neutrinos with a non-zero scalar-to-tensor ratio ($\ln B=-10.8$). Other models are less strongly disfavoured with respect to flat $\Lambda$CDM. As with all analyses based on Bayesian Evidence, the final numbers depend on the widths of the parameter priors. We adopt for our calculations the priors used in the Planck parameter inference analyses themselves while performing a sensitivity analysis for two of the best competitor extensions. The resulting message is nevertheless clear: current data favour the standard flat $\Lambda$CDM model. Our quantitative conclusion is that extensions beyond the standard cosmological model are strongly disfavoured, even where they are introduced to explain tensions or anomalies.

Jai-chan Hwang, Donghui Jeong, Hyerim Noh

A tensor-type cosmological perturbation, defined as a transverse and traceless spatial fluctuation, is often interpreted as the gravitational waves. While decoupled from the scalar-type perturbations in linear order, the tensor perturbations can be sourced from the scalar-type in the nonlinear order. The tensor perturbations generated by the quadratic combination of linear scalar-type cosmological perturbation are widely studied in the literature, but all previous studies are based on zero-shear gauge without proper justification. Here, we show that, being second order in perturbation, such an induced tensor perturbation is generically gauge dependent. In particular, the gravitational wave power spectrum depends on the hypersurface (temporal gauge) condition taken for the linear scalar perturbation. We further show that, during the matter-dominated era, the induced tensor modes dominate over the linearly evolved primordial gravitational waves amplitude for $k\gtrsim10^{-2}~[h/{\rm Mpc}]$ even for the gauge that gives lowest induced tensor modes with the optimistic choice of primordial gravitational waves ($r=0.1$). The induced tensor modes, therefore, must be modeled correctly specific to the observational strategy for the measurement of primordial gravitational waves from large-scale structure via, for example, parity-odd mode of weak gravitational lensing, or clustering fossils.

Biswajit Pandey

We use information entropy to analyze the anisotropy in the mock galaxy catalogues from dark matter distribution and simulated biased galaxy distributions from $\Lambda$CDM N-body simulation. We show that one can recover the linear bias parameter of the simulated galaxy distributions by comparing the radial, polar and azimuthal anisotropies in the simulated galaxy distributions with that from the dark matter distribution. This method for determination of the linear bias requires only $O(N)$ operations as compared to $O(N^{2})$ or at least $O(N \log N)$ operations required for the methods based on the two-point correlation function and the power spectrum. We apply this method to determine the linear bias parameter for the galaxies in the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS) and find that the 2MRS galaxies in the $K_{s}$ band have a linear bias of $\sim 1.3$.

Michael Duerr, Pavel Fileviez Perez, Juri Smirnov

We investigate the possible collider signatures of a new Higgs in simple extensions of the Standard Model where baryon number is a local symmetry spontaneously broken at the low scale. We refer to this new Higgs as "Baryonic Higgs". This Higgs has peculiar properties since it can decay into all Standard Model particles, the leptophobic gauge boson, and the vector-like quarks present in these theories to ensure anomaly cancellation. We investigate in detail the constraints from the $\gamma \gamma$, $Z \gamma$, $Z Z$, and $W W$ searches at the Large Hadron Collider, needed to find a lower bound on the scale at which baryon number is spontaneously broken. The di-photon channel turns out to be a very sensitive probe in the case of small scalar mixing and can severely constrain the baryonic scale. We also study the properties of the leptophobic gauge boson in order to understand the testability of these theories at the LHC.

Ruari Mackenzie, Tom Shanks, Malcolm N. Bremer, Yan-Chuan Cai, Madusha L.P. Gunawardhana, PUC), András Kovács, Peder Norberg, Istvan Szapudi

We report the results of the 2dF-VST ATLAS Cold Spot galaxy redshift survey (2CSz) based on imaging from VST ATLAS and spectroscopy from 2dF AAOmega over the core of the CMB Cold Spot. We sparsely surveyed the inner 5$^{\circ}$ radius of the Cold Spot to a limit of $i_{AB} \le 19.2$, sampling $\sim7000$ galaxies at $z<0.4$. We have found voids at $z=$ 0.14, 0.26 and 0.30 but they are interspersed with small over-densities and the scale of these voids is insufficient to explain the Cold Spot through the $\Lambda$CDM ISW effect. Combining with previous data out to $z\sim1$, we conclude that the CMB Cold Spot could not have been imprinted by a void confined to the inner core of the Cold Spot. Additionally we find that our 'control' field GAMA G23 shows a similarity in its galaxy redshift distribution to the Cold Spot. Since the GAMA G23 line-of-sight shows no evidence of a CMB temperature decrement we conclude that the Cold Spot may have a primordial origin rather than being due to line-of-sight effects.